DCF 快速估值模型

Step 1 — Estimate FCF Base
Use the trailing 3-year average FCF as your starting point. If FCF is negative or erratic, use owner earnings (net income + D&A – capex – working capital change) or normalized EBITDA – capex.

Step 2 — Project Growth Scenarios
Model 3 scenarios over 5 years:
  • Bear: FCF grows at 0–3% (or declines)
  • Base: FCF grows at the company's LT revenue growth estimate – 2%
  • Bull: FCF grows at the high end of analyst consensus

Step 3 — Discount Rate (WACC)
WACC = Risk-free rate (10Y UST) + Beta × Equity Risk Premium + Size premium
Rule of thumb: 8% for large-cap, 10–12% for mid/small-cap.

Step 4 — Terminal Value
TV = FCF_year5 × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
Use g = 2–3% (roughly in line with long-run nominal GDP growth).

Step 5 — Intrinsic Value per Share
PV = Σ[FCF_t / (1+WACC)^t] + TV / (1+WACC)^5
Intrinsic value = PV / diluted share count.

Step 6 — Margin of Safety
Buy only at ≥25% discount to base-case IV.
Report: Bear IV / Base IV / Bull IV per share with the key assumption driving the spread.