Prompt#risk#short#contrarian

空头压力测试

买入前用最强反驳论据挑战你的多头逐辑，防止确认偏误。

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Bear Case Stress Test

For {TICKER}, build the strongest possible bear case:

1. Valuation risk — Is the current multiple pricing in unrealistic growth assumptions?

2. Competitive threats — What competitors or technology disruptions are being underestimated?

3. Macro kill switch — What macro scenario (rates, recession, regulation) collapses the thesis?

4. Balance sheet risk — Is debt manageable in a downturn? Any covenant or refinancing risks?

5. Probability-weighted downside: estimate % drawdown and price target in a bear scenario.

6. Exit trigger — What specific event or data point would make you sell immediately?

Be contrarian. Do not confirm the bull thesis.