Skill#sector-rotation#macro#cycle#ETF

Sector Rotation Monitor

Identify which sectors are entering or exiting favor using the economic cycle, yield curve, and relative strength signals.

by Capital Deck Team0 likes0 copies

## Sector Rotation Monitor

**Date**: {DATE} | **Portfolio**: {PORTFOLIO}

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**STEP 1 — IDENTIFY CYCLE PHASE**
Based on GDP trend, PMI, yield curve, and unemployment:

| Phase       | GDP      | PMI      | Yield Curve | Typical Leaders          |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Cycle | Recovering | >50, rising | Steepening | Financials, Consumer Disc., Real Estate |
| Mid Cycle   | Expanding  | >55        | Flat/normal | Tech, Industrials, Energy |
| Late Cycle  | Slowing    | >50, falling | Flattening | Energy, Materials, Healthcare |
| Recession   | Contracting| <50        | Inverted    | Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare |

Current Assessment:
- GDP trend: ___
- PMI: ___ (rising / falling)
- 2Y–10Y spread: ___bps
- **Current cycle phase**: ___
- **Favored sectors**: ___

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**STEP 2 — RELATIVE STRENGTH SCORECARD**
Score each sector 1–5 vs. S&P 500 over 1M, 3M, 6M (1=lagging, 5=leading)

| Sector                | 1M RS | 3M RS | 6M RS | Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK)      |       |       |       |     |       |
| Healthcare (XLV)      |       |       |       |     |       |
| Financials (XLF)      |       |       |       |     |       |
| Consumer Disc. (XLY)  |       |       |       |     |       |
| Consumer Staples (XLP)|       |       |       |     |       |
| Energy (XLE)          |       |       |       |     |       |
| Industrials (XLI)     |       |       |       |     |       |
| Materials (XLB)       |       |       |       |     |       |
| Real Estate (XLRE)    |       |       |       |     |       |
| Utilities (XLU)       |       |       |       |     |       |
| Comm. Services (XLC)  |       |       |       |     |       |

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**STEP 3 — ACTION CHECKLIST**
- [ ] Top 3 sectors by RS score align with cycle phase: Yes / No
- [ ] Any sector showing RS acceleration (improving rank): ___
- [ ] Any sector showing RS deceleration (deteriorating rank): ___
- [ ] Current portfolio sector weights vs. cycle-favored weights:
  - Over-weight in: ___
  - Under-weight in: ___

**Rotation Signal**: Rotate into ___ / Hold current allocation / Reduce exposure to ___