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Prompt#position-management#averaging-down#risk#discipline
Position Recovery Decision
A structured framework for deciding whether to average down into a losing position or cut your losses — based on thesis integrity, not price pain.
by Capital Deck Team0 likes0 copies
Position Recovery Decision
You are down {X}% on {COMPANY} ({TICKER}). Use this framework to decide:
AVERAGE DOWN or CUT THE LOSS?
1. THESIS INTEGRITY CHECK (most important question)
- Is your original investment thesis still intact?
- Has any new information emerged that invalidates a core assumption?
- Classify: Thesis INTACT (stock down on noise) / Thesis BROKEN (fundamentals changed).
→ If thesis broken: CUT immediately. Do not average down into a broken thesis.
2. WHAT HAS ACTUALLY CHANGED?
- Company-specific: earnings miss, guidance cut, competitive loss, management change?
- Macro: sector rotation, rate shock, liquidity crunch?
- Sentiment-only: market-wide selloff with no stock-specific news?
→ Sentiment-only declines with intact thesis = potential add opportunity.
3. POSITION SIZING DISCIPLINE
- What % of portfolio is this position currently?
- If you average down to your maximum position limit, can you handle further downside?
- Never add to a position that would take you above your max single-name limit.
4. OPPORTUNITY COST
- Is this the best use of capital right now vs. other ideas on your watchlist?
- Are you averaging down out of conviction or out of ego / loss aversion?
5. EXIT CRITERIA (pre-commit before deciding)
- If you add here, what specific event triggers an unconditional exit?
- Set a hard stop: if stock falls another X%, you exit regardless of thesis view.
6. DECISION
- AVERAGE DOWN: only if thesis intact + within position limits + best use of capital.
- CUT: if thesis broken OR position already at max limit OR better alternatives exist.
- HOLD (no action): if uncertain — do nothing until clarity improves.