Dividend Safety Analyzer

## Dividend Safety Analyzer

**Stock**: {COMPANY} ({TICKER})
**Annual Dividend per Share**: $___  |  **Current Yield**: ___%

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**TIER 1 — PAYOUT RATIO TESTS**
| Test                          | Value | Safe Threshold | Pass/Fail |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS)    | ___%  | < 60–75%       |           |
| FCF Payout Ratio (Div/FCF)    | ___%  | < 60%          |           |
| EBITDA Payout Ratio           | ___%  | < 35%          |           |

**TIER 2 — TREND ANALYSIS**
- EPS growth (3yr CAGR): ___% | FCF growth (3yr CAGR): ___%
- Dividend growth (3yr CAGR): ___%
- Is dividend growth being funded by earnings growth or payout ratio expansion?
  → Answer: ___

**TIER 3 — RECESSION STRESS TEST**
Assume revenue falls 20%, margins compress 3 pts:
- Stressed FCF estimate: $___M
- Stressed FCF payout ratio: ___%
- Can dividend be maintained? Yes / No / Reduced by ____%

**TIER 4 — BALANCE SHEET SUPPORT**
- Net Debt/EBITDA: ___ (>3x = elevated risk in a dividend context)
- Cash on hand vs. annual dividend cost: $___M cash / $___M dividends = ___x coverage
- Could management fund dividend from balance sheet for ___ years if FCF drops 50%?

**TIER 5 — MANAGEMENT COMMITMENT**
- Has the dividend been cut in the past 10 years? Yes / No (when: ___)
- Has management explicitly committed to dividend growth? Quote: ___
- Is the dividend a core part of the company's shareholder return framework?

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**DIVIDEND SAFETY SCORE**
| Tier           | Pass/Fail   | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Payout Ratios  | __ / 3      | 30%    |
| Trend          | Pass/Fail   | 20%    |
| Recession Test | Pass/Fail   | 25%    |
| Balance Sheet  | Pass/Fail   | 15%    |
| Management     | Pass/Fail   | 10%    |

**Overall Safety**: Very Safe / Safe / Borderline / At Risk / Cut Likely