Investment Thesis One-Pager

## Investment Thesis One-Pager

**Company**: {COMPANY} ({TICKER}) | **Date**: {DATE} | **Price**: $___

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**1. BUSINESS IN ONE PARAGRAPH**
{COMPANY} is a ___ company that ___ [core business model]. It generates revenue primarily through ___, serving ___ customers in ___. The business has ___ in revenue and ___ EBITDA margins.

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**2. COMPETITIVE MOAT**
Primary moat type (circle one): Cost Advantage / Switching Costs / Network Effects / Intangibles / Efficient Scale

Evidence for moat:
- ___
- ___
- Moat trend: Widening / Stable / Narrowing — why: ___

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**3. KEY GROWTH DRIVERS (next 3–5 years)**
1. ___ (estimated contribution: ___% revenue CAGR)
2. ___ (estimated contribution: ___% revenue CAGR)
3. ___ (estimated contribution: ___% revenue CAGR)

Total revenue CAGR estimate: ___% | FCF CAGR estimate: ___%

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**4. BEAR CASE — WHY I COULD BE WRONG**
- Risk 1: ___ (probability: ___%, impact: -___% on intrinsic value)
- Risk 2: ___ (probability: ___%, impact: -___% on intrinsic value)
- Risk 3: ___

What would cause me to sell: ___

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**5. VALUATION**
- Intrinsic value estimate: $___ (method: ___)
- Upside to current price: ___%
- Margin of safety: ___% (target: ___% minimum)
- Downside in bear case: ___%
- Risk/reward ratio: ___:1

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**6. CATALYSTS (12-month)**
1. ___ (expected date: ___)
2. ___
3. ___

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**7. CONVICTION & POSITION SIZING**
- Conviction level: High / Medium / Low
- Suggested portfolio weight: ___% (max: ___%)
- Entry plan: Buy all now / Scale in over ___ months
- Review trigger: Thesis confirmed if ___ by ___